Why Republicans shouldn't want to win November 2nd

If Republicans want to take the White House in 2012, they should do everything in their power to make sure they don't gain the majority in the House and Senate on November 2.

Of course, no Republican is going to roll over and play dead. Every Republican vying for a seat is going to do all they can to get it. If Republicans don't at least take the majority in the House, this election will be considered a disappointment for them.

But Republicans won't win the White House in 2012 unless they remain the minority in the House and Senate.

Let's just take a look at the recent history of 2-term presidents.

1994 - Republicans gain 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats, becoming the majority party in both houses of Congress.
1996 - Democrat Bill Clinton beats Republican Bob Dole 379-159.

1982 - Democrats gain 27 House seats and the Senate remained unchanged, retaining a majority in the House and minority in the Senate.
1984 - Republican Ronald Reagan beats Democrat Walter Mondale 525-13.

1970 - Democrats picked up 12 House seats lost 3 Senate seats, retaining a majority in both houses of Congress.
1972 - Republican Richard Nixon beats Democrat George McGovern 520-17.

1954 - Democrats picked up 18 House seats and 2 Senate seats, becoming the majority party in both houses of Congress.
1956 - Republican Dwight Eisenhower beats Democrat Adlai Stevenson 457-73.

The only outlier for a 2-term president is from 2002, when Republicans gained 8 House and 2 Senate seats, maintaining their control over Congress and giving them the majority in the Senate. Of course, this was followed by a victory for Bush in 2004. However, the only other time this has happened since 1900 was in 1934 with Franklin Roosevelt, and I believe the 9/11 effect was still in play for Republicans in 2002 as the nation's attention was on foreign policy, considered a strong suit of the Republican Party.

We only have two mid-term elections for post-1950 presidents who served just one term and then lost their reelection bids, so there's not much comparative data.

1978 - Republicans gain 15 House seats and 3 Senate seats, but fail to come even close to a majority in either house of Congress.
1980 - Republican Ronald Reagan beats Democrat Jimmy Carter 489-49.

1990 - Democrats gain 7 House seats and 1 Senate seat, retaining control of both houses of Congress.
1992 - Democrat Bill Clinton beats Republican George Bush 370-168.

None of the data is entirely consistent, but I do see a general pattern of the majority party in the House sharing enough blame with the president that the incumbent president's opponent isn't able to criticize him to the extent that he would otherwise be able to.

That's what will happen if Republicans take the majority in the House in November. In 2012, Republicans will share the blame - and presumably the credit - for any policies that are passed between now and then. That's just not a position that sets themselves up for a presidential victory.