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State of the presidential race

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Wide White: State of the presidential race

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

State of the presidential race

I've largely stayed out of the fray of political polls and who's predicted to win what.

Until now.

Real Clear Politics has some excellent analysis that formed the primary basis for my analysis.

If the election were to be held today and all polls were true - even those where the candidates are tied or within one or two percentage points - Obama would win.

This map offers a much more accurate picture of where we currently stand.

Personally, I think the only states that are truly undecided are Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

And if I really had to predict right now how I think the election will play out, here it is.

Here's my analysis of all of the current toss-up states (defined as having an average margin of less than 5% between the candidates in current presidential polls).

Nevada - slightly too conservative for Obama to win, and McCain has a good relationship with the Hispanic population, which doesn't tend to be as kind to black candidates at the polls. Additionally, McCain is from a bordering state and Palin is also from the West.
Colorado - see "Nevada" above. (This is very shaky though.)
New Mexico - many attributes of the two above states apply, but New Mexico has been a much tougher bid for conservatives. It went for Kerry, then for Bush, with both elections decided by less than 1%. I don't think McCain will spend as many resources here and it will swing Obama's way.
Minnesota - sure, it's a 2-point (negligible) lead for Obama now, but are we really kidding ourselves? Minnesota couldn't even vote for Reagan. There's no way our state is voting for McCain-Palin.
Michigan - I think Michigan has a decent chance to swing McCain's way thanks for the large blue collar population. With the problems black Democratic Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick has had lately, there's speculation that there may be a statewide disassociation with the black Democrat on the presidential ticket. However, I don't think it would be enough to upset Obama's slim lead here. Michigan is union country, and we all know which way the unions go...
Ohio - in many ways, Ohio is similar to Michigan. However, it has traditionally been much friendlier to Republicans than Michigan has been, and I think it will trend that way in 2008. McCain has done well here over the last few months, particularly in the blue collar areas of the southeast where many analysts think race may be a sad factor working against Obama.
Pennsylvania - see "Michigan" above. McCain has pulled to within a virtual dead-heat and it's not entirely unheard of for a Republican to win statewide office, but the state has been Democratic for the last few years and I just don't see that changing. There's too much Northeast Liberal influence here. Besides, Joe Biden lives near the border in Delaware and was born in Scranton, PA. Obama will carry it.
Virginia - the only state in an actual tie right now (48-48), it will break McCain's way. It's similar to Ohio in its historic friendliness to Republicans, and while Democrats have made significant gains statewide over the last 2 years, I don't think the state will break Democratic in a national election. It's got too much of the conservative south in it.
New Hampshire - much like Pennsylvania, it's not unheard of for Republicans to win here. Bush carried the state in 2000, Kerry in 2004. But, also like Pennsylvania, it's in the heart of the Northeast and won't be able to resist the urge to go the way of its neighbors.

There you have it. I predict a McCain win. Actually, once I was done doing my state-by-state analysis, I was sure I had predicted an Obama win. I was really surprised to see McCain come out on top in my prediction.

I think the race will really come down to Colorado, which is the only state I predicted would fall differently than it's currently polling (it leans towards Obama by .6%). If Obama is able to get enough of the young evangelical Colorado Springs-type crowd on his side, he wins the state and the election. I don't think it will happen.

But there's a LOT of election to go...


Blogger James A. N. Stauffer declared,

The Iowa Electronic Markets predict an Obama win.

9/16/2008 7:23 PM  
Blogger Joey declared,

I don't know what the Iowa Electronic Markets are, but it looks to be more of an indicator of national polls. Obama may win the national polls, but it's the electoral college that will determine the president.

9/16/2008 10:42 PM  
Blogger Carla declared,

Ok. Nothing to do with your post although I did read through every word. Promise.

At what age did you start babysitting your younger siblings and were you paid?

My son is 11 and really wants to earn our trust and our cash and start babysitting. I am ok with short periods of time...

9/18/2008 6:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous declared,

I agree, Obama could really use a baby sitter!

9/23/2008 8:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous declared,

Virginia will be extremely close, but it will ultimately go to Obama.

9/25/2008 1:31 AM  

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