Mark Kennedy in trouble?

According to a new Star Tribune poll, Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy is losing to Democrat Amy Klobuchar 32%-56%.

Here's why this poll doesn't entirely convince me.

1. The Star Tribune has a reliably liberal reputation. It would be like trusting a poll from the Capital Times out of Madison. Or maybe like trusting a poll conducted by Al Franken. You just can't trust it.

2. Bush's approval rating in Minnesota is 36%. Those who support him have got to be diehard supporters at this point. You can't convince me that 4% of those supporting Bush don't support Mark Kennedy.

3. Kennedy isn't exactly a diehard conservative. Granted, he's no liberal. I'm not even sure I'd call him a moderate. I don't live in Minnesota yet, so I haven't followed his record too much. But I do know that despite his narrow victory in 2004, he seems fairly popular in his home territory of Minnesota's Sixth Congressional District. To think that he's only got support from 32% of the state is pretty tough for me to believe.

Here's why I'm inclined to think that, while not totally accurate, the poll is probably somewhat reflective of reality.

1. Kennedy is a Republican. In Minnesota. Governor Tim Pawlenty may be leading in his reelection bid, but state and federal government are two separate things. And let's not forget Minnesotans' penchant for being independent. I don't believe Pawlenty's success will affect Mark Kennedy.

2. Based on my estimation from the very little TV I actually watch, Klobuchar has been slaughtering Kennedy in ad buys. She came out with her ads a lot earlier and has run a lot more. Kennedy seems to be running close to even now, but in the grand scheme of things, he's probably pretty far behind.

3. Kennedy holds federal office; Klobuchar doesn't. In a year in which the voters are disgusted with Washington politics, voting for a Washington guy seems redundant to a lot of people. Never mind that the alternative is a longtime attorney. She doesn't have the stain of Washington to worry about.

Regardless of the reasons I have for doubting the poll's accuracy, I don't doubt that Kennedy is behind. Minnesota will likely be my new home within the next few weeks. I'll be watching this race much more closely then.